Israel's attack on Hamas' top leaders as they weighed a new ceasefire proposal in Qatar was the latest in a series of shocking and unprecedented measures it has taken to vanquish the militant group — all of which have so far failed.
Hamas says its top leaders , but it has offered no proof and has been tight-lipped after past assassinations. But even if the strike did succeed, it wouldn't spell the end of Hamas, which has survived two years of war and still holds around 20 living hostages in the Gaza Strip.
Nor is there any reason to believe that Israel's latest offensive, , will bring about the “total victory†that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly promised since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack ignited the war.
That’s in part because of Hamas’ ability to melt into the population and resurface later.
But it’s also because Israel’s stated goal of , but disarming it and ensuring it never reconstitutes itself — appears to many, including — to be a recipe for endless war and occupation.
Hamas has survived staggering losses
in Gaza and thousands of its fighters have been killed in one of the deadliest and most destructive military campaigns since World War II. It has few if any longer range rockets, its government barely exists and its police have mostly vanished. Iran and its other regional allies .
But Hamas still has thousands of fighters, according to the Israeli military — including some recruited during the war. It has retained . And it has the hostages.
Israel's tactical gains have meanwhile come at an enormous cost to Palestinian civilians, with , and . They have also left Israel more isolated than ever on the world stage, and the strike on Qatar has deepened the sense, , that Israel has become a regional menace.
That isolation likely brings some solace to Hamas’ embattled members inside Gaza, where the government it has run since seizing power in 2007 has mostly collapsed and its security forces have melted away.
The government and police have collapsed
Israel says it now controls 75% of the territory, much of which has been reduced to fields of rubble, and has vowed to take the rest. Hamas is largely confined to the same enclaves where much of Gaza's population of some 2 million Palestinians have sought refuge.
The rest of Gaza has fallen under the control of powerful local families and armed groups — at least one of which .
Nahed Sheheiber, head of Gaza's private truckers’ union, said plainclothes Hamas police still operate in parts of Gaza City, the central city of Deir al-Balah and built-up refugee camps in central Gaza.
“They carry out raids against looters and thieves, as well as merchants who steal people’s food,†he said, referring to hoarding and price-gouging by some vendors. He denied Israeli allegations that Hamas is behind the frequent looting of aid trucks.
The AP spoke to two civil servants who said the Hamas-run government still paid them partial salaries of around $200-$300 a month. They spoke on condition of anonymity out of security concerns.
Saeed Abu Elaish, a medic from the Jabaliya refugee camp, said the Health Ministry and the Civil Defense were still partially functioning, but little else. Most public services are provided by U.N. agencies and international aid groups.
Hit-and-run attacks
Around 50 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since March, mainly in hit-and-run attacks and by explosive booby traps. On Monday, a bomb was thrown into a tank in Gaza City, killing four soldiers, the military said.
Some 450 Israeli troops have been killed since the initial ground invasion of Gaza in October 2023. Further losses could erode support for the war in Israel, where calling for a deal with Hamas to free the hostages.
The Israeli military believes Hamas had up to 35,000 fighters before the war, and says it has killed over 20,000 of them. Hamas has not commented on its losses.
But in January, departing Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. believed Hamas had recruited nearly as many fighters as it had lost.
Two Egyptian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss their country's close monitoring of the security situation in Gaza, estimate that Hamas and other armed groups have recruited thousands of fighters, often tasking them with harvesting unexploded ordnance from Israeli strikes.
Cells of three to five militants operate largely independently, a Hamas official said on condition of anonymity to discuss the secretive armed wing. Units holding hostages have been instructed to booby-trap their locations and wear explosive vests — to be detonated if Israeli forces show up, the official said.
Hamas' armed wing is led by Ezzedin al-Haddad, a veteran commander inside Gaza. It is the armed wing — and not the exiled leaders negotiating in Doha — that holds the hostages and would likely have the final word on their release.
If Hamas survives, it can rebuild
Hamas may only control around a quarter of Gaza, but that's where most of the population is, says Kobi Michael, an Israeli researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute.
“As long as the people of Gaza believe that Hamas is an option for a future governance ... they will not support any other alternative," he said. "Hamas doesn't play games."
Hamas says it is willing to hand over power to other Palestinians but . It has threatened and killed Palestinians who cooperate with the Israeli military.
Israel fears any ceasefire that leaves Hamas armed and intact would allow it to eventually repeat the Oct. 7 attack. Netanyahu says the only solution is for Israel to maintain open-ended security control while delegating civilian administration to others.
But even then, a lasting victory could prove elusive.
Hamas emerged in the late 1980s, when Israel ruled Gaza. It only grew more powerful as Israel handed over civilian administration in the mid-1990s to the rival Palestinian Authority and .
Its ideology has survived the deaths of multiple leaders and countless other setbacks, and is likely to remain potent as long as the Palestinians want for a future state.
“Hamas has been degraded as an authority,†said Ahmed Dhaher, a schoolteacher from northern Gaza. “But it has not ended. It will exist as long as the Israeli occupation exists."
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