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Avery Shenfeld doesn't think the Bank of Canada will cut its benchmark interest rate at its decision on Wednesday, but if it does, he said it will be a "pleasant surprise."

"There's always a chance that they'll surprise with the rate cut," the chief economist of CIBC said.

Most economists are also expecting the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent for a third consecutive decision later this week.

Stubbornness on the inflation front and surprise strength in the labour market have quashed arguments for further easing since the central bank's June decision.

The Canadian economy gained an unexpected 83,000 jobs in June, Statistics Canada reported earlier this month, driving the unemployment rate lower for the first time since January.

Shenfield expects Canada's tariff dispute with the United States led to an economic contraction in the second quarter of the year.

Here's what else we're watching...

US-EU deal sets a 15% tariff on most goods and averts the threat of a trade war with a global shock

The United States and the European Union agreed on Sunday to a trade framework setting a 15% tariff on most goods, staving off — at least for now — far higher import duties on both sides that might have sent shock waves through economies around the globe.

The sweeping announcement came after President Donald Trump and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen met briefly at Trump's Turnberry golf course in Scotland. Their private sit-down culminated months of bargaining, with the White House deadline Friday nearing for imposing punishing tariffs on the EU's 27 member countries.

As with other, recent tariff agreements that Trump announced with countries including Japan and the United Kingdom, some major details remain pending in this one.

Trump said the EU had agreed to buy some $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest $600 billion more than it already is in America — as well as make a major military equipment purchase. He said tariffs “for automobiles and everything else will be a straight across tariff of 15%� and meant that U.S. exporters �have the opening up of all of the European countries.�

Von der Leyen said the 15% tariffs were “across the board, all inclusive� and that “indeed, basically the European market is open.�

Lawyer says Canada must hasten Gaza visa approvals

A Toronto immigration lawyer says family members of Canadians are dying in Gaza as the federal immigration department drags its heels approving visas through a special program launched in 2024.

Debbie Rachlis said Canada must speed up the approval process for the temporary special measures visa it is offering to members of Palestinian Canadians' families who are trying to flee the violence in Gaza.

Rachlis represents dozens of applicants to the program and said she is involved with "at least five cases" in which people have died waiting for word on their visa. She lobbied for the special measures program as a member of the Gaza Family Reunification Project.

Canada opened the multi-step program offering temporary residents visas to members of Canadians' families trapped in Gaza on Jan. 9, 2024. It closed on March 26, after the program's cap of 5,000 visa applications had been accepted for processing.

Fewer than 1,200 visas had been granted as of June 21, said Jeffrey MacDonald, a spokesperson for the Department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. That's less than a quarter of the visas Canada said it would hand out.

N.S. disabilities reform behind in housing plan

There's been a surge in the number of Nova Scotians with complex disabilities stuck in temporary housing, according to recent figures released by the province.

This rise in what are called "temporary shelter arrangements," or TSAs, operated by for-profit and non-profit agencies has occurred despite a plan by the province to decrease their use over the past two years.

The Department of Social Development describes the temporary housing as being needed whenever a person with a complex disability is in urgent need of housing, and options for a permanent home have been "explored and exhausted." Usually, the person is placed in an apartment, with one-on-one care, but without a long-term plan to improve their lives.

The province introduced a sweeping, five-year reform plan for the care and housing of people with disabilities in 2023. It was the result of a landmark court decision that found there was systemic discrimination against people with disabilities.

The plan called for a sharp decrease in the number of people with disabilities in temporary housing arrangements by 2025 but the opposite has occurred.

Motion expected on closure of B.C. injection site

Council in Nanaimo, B.C., is scheduled to hear a motion that could result in the city asking a provincial health authority to close a local overdose prevention site.

Coun. Ian Thorpe is expected to bring forward the motion at Nanaimo's council meeting today that will ask to "formally request" Island Health to close the site on Albert Street, next to city hall.

Mayor Leonard Krog says he expects the motion to be debated and deferred to enable experts and those with an interest on the issue to come before council at a later time before a decision is made.

The site has generated enough concerns about disorder and violence nearby that city staff previously proposed building a 1.8-metre-high fence that was intended to protect those at city hall.

Nanaimo council decided against the proposal at a committee meeting earlier this month, with Krog saying he was unsure about the fence's effectiveness as well as the "really problematic message" it would send about the challenges of disorder in the area.

This report by °µÍø½ûÇø was first published July 28, 2025.