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The railway has said it will lock out employees unless a new contract is reached or the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference agrees to binding arbitration — a path the union has rejected. The Teamsters have also issued a 72-hour strike notice, which would kick in at the same time.

A phased shutdown of the networks at both CPKC and Canadian National Railway Co. is already underway as the clock ticks down on negotiations between both companies and the union. Canadian Pacific barred virtually all new shipments on Tuesday morning, with CN planning to do the same Wednesday to avoid leaving any goods stranded on the tracks.

The commuter lines affected by the potential work stoppage are TransLink’s West Coast Express in the Vancouver area, Metrolinx’s Milton line and the Lakeshore line's Hamilton GO station in the Greater Toronto Area, and Exo’s Candiac, Saint-Jérôme and Vaudreuil/Hudson lines in the Montreal area.

“Without the work of the CPKC rail traffic controllers, our trains on these three lines would be unable to run," said Exo spokesman Eric Edström in an email in French.

"The bus shuttles that will be offered will not be able to compensate for the entire service of the three affected train lines."

The three Montreal lines account for 21,000 of the impacted daily riders, while Greater Toronto would see about 8,100 customers sidelined, according to the transit agencies. In Metro Vancouver, more than 3,000 passengers take the West Coast Express each day.

TransLink said it will provide customer updates as the situation unfolds. Metrolinx is pointing Toronto-area riders to alternate routes and stations, while Exo said it is working on alternative bus services into Montreal.

The impact on commuter lines is limited to routes running on CPKC-owned tracks because dispatchers at CN, which hosts a greater number of passenger trains, are not part of the bargaining process and would not take part in a work stoppage.

The Teamsters represent some 80 CPKC rail traffic controllers negotiating for a contract — distinct from the company's main group of engineers, conductors and yard workers.

A shutdown by 9,300 employees at CN and CPKC would be unprecedented, marking the first-ever simultaneous work stoppage at the country's biggest rail companies, experts say. Their trains haul a combined $1 billion worth of goods per day, from canola to consumer electronics, according to the Railway Association of Canada.

Already, the U.S.-based CSX and Norfolk Southern railways have closed their gates to most cross-border shipments, while shipping giants such as Hapag-Lloyd have made "contingency plans" as others reroute cargo.

More than 100 industry groups and local chambers of commerce have called on the prime minister for government intervention, warning that key links in the country's supply chain are set to snap.

The U.S. and Canadian chambers of commerce added to those calls Tuesday with their respective heads Suzanne Clark and Perrin Beatty saying, "A stoppage of rail service will be devastating to Canadian businesses and families and impose significant impacts on the U.S. economy."

"Significant two-way trade and deeply integrated supply chains between Canada and the United States mean that any significant rail disruption will jeopardize the livelihoods of workers across multiple industries on both sides of the border," the pair said in a statement.

"The Government of Canada must take action to ensure goods continue to move reliably between our two countries."

Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon planned to meet with CN and union representatives in Montreal on Tuesday, and with CPKC and the Teamsters in Calgary on Wednesday.

MacKinnon, who stepped into the minister's role barely four weeks ago, has repeatedly stressed that the parties must hammer out a deal themselves rather than rely on federal intervention, such as back-to-work legislation.

All sides said this week they remain far apart, with wages and scheduling as key stumbling blocks.

If they can't reach a tentative deal, some Via Rail passengers will also be affected.

Canadian Pacific owns two sections of track in Ontario where Via trains run, including a nearly 480-kilometre stretch between Sudbury and White River. The train, which runs three times a week, would be cancelled "without alternative transportation" until the labour dispute ends, said Via spokeswoman Jamie Orchard.

"Impacted customers on this route will be contacted directly if the work stoppage is confirmed. They will also be able to autonomously modify their reservation or opt for a full refund at no cost on ," she said in an email.

The Crown corporation is also working with CPKC to maintain access to a one-kilometre section in Smiths Falls, Ont., that its cars traverse on multiple daily trips between Toronto and Ottawa, Orchard said.

This report by °µÍø½ûÇø was first published Aug. 20, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CP, TSX:CNR)