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"This party has played an important role in my life," the Moncton East member of the legislative assembly said in the statement. "My support and commitment to the Progressive Conservative party of New Brunswick is unwavering. I look forward to continuing to build this party in the future, which to me means being fiscally conservative and socially progressive."

Allain was one of two ministers — along with former transport minister Jeff Carr — dropped from cabinet by Premier Blaine Higgs for signing a letter expressing "extreme disappointment" following changes to the province’s policy on gender identity and sexual orientation in schools.

Carr announced this week that he will also not run in the election, expected in October.

Higgs acknowledged the pending departures of Allain and Carr in a short emailed statement. “It is good to know they are committed to fulfilling their roles as MLAs until the next election is called," he said. "I wish them both well in their future endeavours.�

Allain said he had no comment beyond his statement.

J.P. Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, Saint John, said the departures are not all bad for Higgs.

On the one hand, people "wouldn't be running for the exits" if things were going well, he said. But on the other hand, it gives Higgs a chance to fill his slate with people who he knows will be completely supportive of him rather than those who have pushed back in cabinet and caucus.

Lewis noted, however, that with Allain's departure, Higgs is losing a candidate who could reach out to the francophone community, where the party lacks support.

The premier's troubles began in October 2022 with the resignation of then education minister Dominic Cardy who called out Higgs' combative leadership style. Other resignations followed in June, including ministers Trevor Holder and Dorothy Shephard who also noted Higgs' inflexible leadership and the changes made to Policy 713. Last month, Natural Resources Minister Mike Holland announced he would not be seeking re-election, and Arlene Dunn, minister of post-secondary education, resigned from cabinet.

A poll conducted last month by Narrative Research found 66 per cent of people are dissatisfied with the government's overall performance.

The Oppostion Liberals led among decided voters with 40 per cent support, compared with 34 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, 15 per cent for the Greens and eight per cent for the NDP. The firm's independent survey, drawing from a sample of 400 adult New Brunswickers, was conducted Feb. 6-22 and is considered accurate to within 4.9 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.

Lewis said while the Tories trail Susan Holt's Liberals, they remain competitive.

"There's still a few months until the next election and we still have to see how New Brunswickers respond to Susan Holt," he said. "And that will help decide who wins enough seats to form the next government."

This report by °µÍø½ûÇø was first published March 1, 2024.